Marketing communication
2025 Mid-year Outlook:
ETF implementation opportunities in
the great rewiring.
Watch the 2025 Mid-Year Outlook video.
The global economy is undergoing a structural transformation - a “great rewiring” - driven by shifting geopolitical alliances, renewed industrial policy, and a resurgence of tariffs as a tool of economic strategy.
These developments have heightened uncertainty and contributed to elevated market volatility, yet they are also unlocking new opportunities as economies adapt. While unpredictable policymaking and inflation risks remain key concerns, both the US and Europe have shown resilience in the face of disruption. Against this backdrop, we outline our key investment convictions for the second half of the year.
Equities
Developed market equities: Rebalancing will be key.
With US equities still relatively overvalued and market leadership concentrated in a handful of mega-cap stocks,1 a more balanced approach to developed market equity allocation may be warranted. The global “rewiring” and the disruptive effects of US tariffs also support the case for selective positioning. Against this backdrop, investors may wish to rebalance portfolios with a focus on regional and style-based opportunities.
Europe could be considered through both a broad pan-European exposure and at a more granular sector level. We see opportunities in industrials, supported by increased fiscal spending, rising investment in infrastructure and defence, and a broader push for supply chain resilience and reindustrialisation. These factors - combined with a more unified approach to regional security - also strengthen the long-term investment case for a dedicated defence allocation.
In the US, we favour mid-caps to capture a broader share of domestic economic resilience. Mid-caps’ more domestic revenue profiles may also offer some insulation from global trade tensions.
In Japan, ongoing corporate reform continues to unlock value, particularly in high dividend and value stocks.1 Small caps may also benefit from a stronger yen and improving capital efficiency.
ETF implementation:
EM equities: Seeking potential winners.
Emerging Markets (EM) assets are finding support in a weaker dollar, expectations of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, attractive domestic yields and resilient growth so far.1 We see potential opportunities, both at a regional and country level.
India equities continue to trade at a premium relative to other EM economies, but we see value in certain segments – including large-cap equities.1 Our positive view is underscored by India’s trade agreement with the US. India is also relatively insulated from tariffs, supported by strong domestic demand and improving structural fundamentals.1
More broadly, we favour an EM ex-China allocation. Undervalued Asian markets like South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines could act as engines for growth, while Turkey and Mexico are key strategic locations that stand out amid the global ‘rewiring’ of trade. We are cautious on China given domestic deflationary forces and increased US rivalry that limits access to high-income markets.
ETF implementation:
Fixed income
Government bonds: Opportunities emerging amid uncertainty.
Government bond markets remain volatile, shaken by concerns over rising debt levels and persistent inflation.1 Nonetheless, we see selective opportunities - particularly in US Treasuries, US inflation-linked securities and Eurozone government bonds.
In the US, while inflation remains sticky, we expect growth to slow over the coming quarters. However, we believe the Fed will manage the delicate balancing act required to avoid a recession. Our base case is for three rate cuts by year-end, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%.2 In this environment, we see potential value in the intermediate (5-year) part of the US yield curve, which tends to respond most to shifts in rate expectations and could benefit as markets price in policy easing. We also see opportunities in US TIPS, which may offer inflation protection while benefiting from an eventual decline in real yields.
In the Eurozone, growth is softening more rapidly and inflationary pressures are easing. This gives the European Central Bank greater scope to support the economy. We expect two additional rate cuts this year, with policy rates declining to 1.5%.2 In this context, we are constructive on Eurozone duration, favouring 7-10 year maturities, which may gain as declining inflation and easing policy put downward pressure on yields.
ETF implementation:
Credit markets: Fundamentals supportive despite tighter spreads.
Investment grade corporate bonds appear well positioned in the current environment,1 though tight spreads limit the scope for capital gains - making credit primarily an income and carry story. We favour high-quality European credit, where fundamentals remain solid and net supply is lower, though we also see selective opportunities in US credit.1
We hold a neutral stance on high yield, as weaker growth could lead to wider spreads later in the year, though default rates should stay low and concentrated in the lowest-rated segments. In the second half of the year, fundamentals may come under pressure from rising tariffs and softening growth, even as central bank easing supports demand.
Supply dynamics remain supportive, with most European issuance driven by refinancing amid elevated redemption volumes.1
ETF implementation:
Responsible investment
Where responsibility meets opportunity.
With growing climate awareness, regulatory momentum, and evolving investor preferences, there are potential opportunities in both ESG fixed income and equities.
Investing in European government green bonds, for example, gives investors confidence that some of their capital is contributing to the EU’s 2018 Action Plan on Sustainable Finance - an initiative designed to support the region’s transition to net zero.
Meanwhile, listed companies demonstrating robust ESG practices may be better positioned to manage long-term risks, attract capital, and benefit from structural shifts towards sustainability - supporting both resilience and return potential over time.
ETF implementation:
Commodities
Building resilience through gold and broader commodities.
Gold and broader commodities continue to serve a strategic role in portfolios, particularly amid US fiscal concerns and elevated geopolitical tensions. Gold stands out as a low-correlation asset that can reduce portfolio volatility and act as a safe haven during market stress. With risks stemming from conflict in the Middle East and ongoing dollar uncertainty, we maintain a positive view on gold as a tool for resilience and diversification.3
Beyond gold, an allocation to other commodities may help to mitigate volatility amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Exposure on commodities can be achieved through UCITS ETFs4 or ETCs5:
ETF implementation:
ETC implementation:
Please see the risks and important information specific to the ETC below.
For a more in-depth view of our investment convictions, read the
Amundi Investment Institute’s Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2025.
1. Past market trends are not a reliable indicator of future ones.
2. Source: Amundi Investment Institute, as of 17 June 2025.
3. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
4. UCITS ETFs are passively-managed index-tracking funds.
5. ETCs are Exchange Traded Commodities securities.
Amundi UCITS ETFs
Capital at risk. Investing in funds entails risk, most notably the risk of capital loss. The value of an investment is subject to market fluctuation and may decrease or increase as a consequence. As a result, fund subscribers may lose part or all of their initial investment. Information on Amundi’s responsible investing can be found on amundietf.com and amundi.com. The investment decision must take into account all the characteristics and objectives of the Fund, as described in the relevant Prospectus.
Investment involves risks. For more information, please refer to the Risk section below.
KNOWING YOUR RISK
It is important for potential investors to evaluate the risks described below and in the fund’s Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”) and prospectus available on our website www.amundietf.com.
CAPITAL AT RISK - ETFs are tracking instruments. Their risk profile is similar to a direct investment in the underlying index. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and investors may not get back the amount originally invested.
UNDERLYING RISK - The underlying index of an ETF may be complex and volatile. For example, ETFs exposed to Emerging Markets carry a greater risk of potential loss than investment in Developed Markets as they are exposed to a wide range of unpredictable Emerging Market risks.
REPLICATION RISK - The fund’s objectives might not be reached due to unexpected events on the underlying markets which will impact the index calculation and the efficient fund replication.
COUNTERPARTY RISK - Investors are exposed to risks resulting from the use of an OTC swap (over-the-counter) or securities lending with the respective counterparty(-ies). Counterparty(-ies) are credit institution(s) whose name(s) can be found on the fund’s website amundietf.com. In line with the UCITS guidelines, the exposure to the counterparty cannot exceed 10% of the total assets of the fund.
CURRENCY RISK – An ETF may be exposed to currency risk if the ETF is denominated in a currency different to that of the underlying index securities it is tracking. This means that exchange rate fluctuations could have a negative or positive effect on returns.
LIQUIDITY RISK – There is a risk associated with the markets to which the ETF is exposed. The price and the value of investments are linked to the liquidity risk of the underlying index components. Investments can go up or down. In addition, on the secondary market liquidity is provided by registered market makers on the respective stock exchange where the ETF is listed. On exchange, liquidity may be limited as a result of a suspension in the underlying market represented by the underlying index tracked by the ETF; a failure in the systems of one of the relevant stock exchanges, or other market-maker systems; or an abnormal trading situation or event.
VOLATILITY RISK – The ETF is exposed to changes in the volatility patterns of the underlying index relevant markets. The ETF value can change rapidly and unpredictably, and potentially move in a large magnitude, up or down.
CONCENTRATION RISK – Thematic ETFs select stocks or bonds for their portfolio from the original benchmark index. Where selection rules are extensive, it can lead to a more concentrated portfolio where risk is spread over fewer stocks than the original benchmark.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is solely for the attention of professional and eligible counterparties, as defined in Directive MIF 2014/65/UE of the European Parliament acting solely and exclusively on their own account. It is not directed at retail clients. In Switzerland, it is solely for the attention of qualified investors within the meaning of Article 10 paragraph 3 a), b), c) and d) of the Federal Act on Collective Investment Scheme of June 23, 2006.
This information is not for distribution and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or services in the United States or in any of its territories or possessions subject to its jurisdiction to or for the benefit of any U.S. Person (as defined in the prospectus of the Funds or in the legal mentions section on www.amundi.com and www.amundietf.com. The Funds have not been registered in the United States under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and units/shares of the Funds are not registered in the United States under the Securities Act of 1933.This material reflects the views and opinions of the individual authors at this date and in no way the official position or advices of any kind of these authors or of Amundi Asset Management nor any of its subsidiaries and thus does not engage the responsibility of Amundi Asset Management nor any of its subsidiaries nor of any of its officers or employees. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is explicitly stated that this document has not been prepared by reference to the regulatory requirements that seek to promote independent financial analysis. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Neither Amundi Asset Management nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability, whether direct or indirect, that may result from using any information contained in this document or from any decision taken the basis of the information contained in this document. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this research is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and principal trading desks that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research. Our asset management area, principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views expressed in this research.
This document is of a commercial nature. The funds described in this document (the “Funds”) may not be available to all investors and may not be registered for public distribution with the relevant authorities in all countries. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that they are authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice.
This is a promotional and non-contractual information which should not be regarded as an investment advice or an investment recommendation, a solicitation of an investment, an offer or a purchase, from Amundi Asset Management (“Amundi”) nor any of its subsidiaries.
The Funds are Amundi UCITS ETFs and Amundi ETF designates the ETF business of Amundi.
Amundi UCITS ETFs are passively-managed index-tracking funds. The Funds are French, Luxembourg open ended mutual investment funds respectively approved by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers, the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier, and authorised for marketing of their units or shares in various European countries (the Marketing Countries) pursuant to the article 93 of the 2009/65/EC Directive.
The Funds can be French Fonds Communs de Placement (FCPs) and also be sub-funds of the following umbrella structures:
- Amundi Index Solutions, Luxembourg SICAV, RCS B206810, located 5, allée Scheffer, L-2520, managed by Amundi Luxembourg S.A.
- Multi Units France, French SICAV, RCS 441 298 163, located 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France managed by Amundi Asset Management located 91-93, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris
- Multi Units Luxembourg, RCS B115129, Luxembourg SICAV located 9, rue de Bitbourg, L-1273 Luxembourg, managed by Amundi Luxembourg S.A. located 5, allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg
Before any subscriptions, the potential investor must read the offering documents (KID and prospectus) of the Funds. The prospectus in French for French UCITS ETFs, and in English for Luxembourg UCITS ETFs, and the KID in the local languages of the Marketing Countries are available free of charge on www.amundi.com or www.amundietf.com. They are also available from the headquarters of Amundi Luxembourg S.A. (as the management company of Amundi Index Solutions and Multi Units Luxembourg), or the headquarters of Amundi Asset Management (as the management company of Amundi ETF French FCPs and Multi Units France). For more information related to the stocks exchanges where the ETF is listed please refer to the fund’s webpage on amundietf.com.Investment in a fund carries a substantial degree of risk (i.e. risks are detailed in the KID and prospectus). Past Performance does not predict future returns. Investment return and the principal value of an investment in funds or other investment product may go up or down and may result in the loss of the amount originally invested. All investors should seek professional advice prior to any investment decision, in order to determine the risks associated with the investment and its suitability.It is the investor’s responsibility to make sure his/her investment is in compliance with the applicable laws she/he depends on, and to check if this investment is matching his/her investment objective with his/her patrimonial situation (including tax aspects). Please note that the management companies of the Funds may de-notify arrangements made for marketing as regards units/shares of the Fund in a Member State of the EU or the UK in respect of which it has made a notification.A summary of information about investors’ rights and collective redress mechanisms can be found in English on the regulatory page at https://about.amundi.com/legal-documentation with respect to Amundi ETFs. This document was not reviewed, stamped or approved by any financial authority.This document is not intended for and no reliance can be placed on this document by persons falling outside of these categories in the below mentioned jurisdictions. In jurisdictions other than those specified below, this document is for the sole use of the professional clients and intermediaries to whom it is addressed. It is not to be distributed to the public or to other third parties and the use of the information provided by anyone other than the addressee is not authorised.This material is based on sources that Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries consider to be reliable at the time of publication. Data, opinions and analysis may be changed without notice. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material. Amundi and/or any of her subsidiaries can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made on the basis of information contained in this material.Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.amundietf.com. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them.Indices and the related trademarks used in this document are the intellectual property of index sponsors and/or its licensors. The indices are used under license from index sponsors. The Funds based on the indices are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by index sponsors and/or its licensors and neither index sponsors nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto. The indices referred to herein (the “Index” or the “Indices”) are neither sponsored, approved or sold by Amundi nor any of its subsidiaries. Neither Amundi nor any of its subsidiaries shall assume any responsibility in this respect.
ETC
KNOWING YOUR RISK
It is important for potential investors to evaluate the risks described below and in the Exchange Traded Security (“ETC”) Key Information Document (“KID”) and prospectus available on our websites www.amundietf.com.
•The ETC offers no capital protection. Prospective investors should be aware that they may lose the value of their entire investment or part of it, as the case may be.
•Precious metal prices are generally more volatile than prices of other asset classes, and the secondary market price of the ETC securities may demonstrate similar volatility.
•The market price of the ETC will be affected by a number of factors such as: movements in the price of the gold, market perception, the creditworthiness of certain transaction parties and the liquidity of the ETC in the secondary market. The value of the gold comprising the Metal Entitlement by reference to the price of the gold (and, by extension, the market price of the ETC) can go down as well as up and the performance of the gold in any future period may not mirror its past performance.
•The ETC is limited recourse obligation of the Issuer (i.e. investors shall have recourse only to the Metal Entitlement in respect of the ETC). In the event that the Metal Entitlement of the ETC is insufficient to pay the minimum redemption amount to all investors on such early or final redemption, such investors may not receive payment of the minimum redemption amount of the ETC in full and may receive substantially less.
•Investors are exposed to the creditworthiness of the Issuer, Metal counterparty, Custodian and the Authorized Participants.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
AMUNDI PHYSICAL GOLD ETC (the “ETC”) is a series of debt securities governed by Irish Law and issued by Amundi Physical Metals plc, a dedicated Irish vehicle (the “Issuer”). The Base Prospectus, and supplement to the Base Prospectus, of the ETC has been approved by the Central Bank of Ireland (the “Central Bank”), as competent authority under the Prospectus Directive. Pursuant to the Directive Prospective Regulation, the ETC is described in a Key Information Document (KID), final terms and Base Prospectus (hereafter the Legal Documentation). The ETC KID must be made available to potential subscribers prior to subscription. The Legal Documentation can be obtained from Amundi on request. The distribution of this document and the offering or sale of the ETC Securities in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. For a description of certain restrictions on the distribution of this document, please refer to the Base Prospectus. The investors are exposed to the creditworthiness of the Issuer.In EEA Member States, the content of this document is approved by Amundi for use with Professional Clients (as defined in EU Directive 2004/39/EC) only and shall not be distributed to the public. Information reputed exact as of 03/07/2025.Reproduction prohibited without the written consent of Amundi.
UNITED KINGDOM
Marketing Communication. For Professional Clients only. In the United Kingdom (the “UK”), this marketing communication is being issued by Amundi (UK) Limited (“Amundi UK”), 77 Coleman Street, London EC2R 5BJ, UK. Amundi UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and entered on the FCA’s Financial Services Register under number 114503. This may be checked at https://register.fca.org.uk/ and further information of its authorisation is available on request. This marketing communication is approved by Amundi UK only for use with Professional Clients (as defined in the FCA’s Handbook of Rules and Guidance, the “FCA Rules”)) and shall not be distributed to the public, relied on or acted upon by any other persons for any purposes whatsoever. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Each fund and/or sub-fund(s) (if any) that is referred to in this marketing communication (each, a “Fund”) is/are (a) recognised scheme(s) under the FCA’s Overseas Fund Regime. UK investors should consider getting financial advice before deciding to invest in a Fund, see the prospectus of the Fund for more information and be aware that: (i) each Fund is authorised overseas, but not in the UK; (ii) the protections afforded by and the rules of, the UK regulatory system (as defined in the FCA Rules), generally will not apply to an investment in a Fund, including the Financial Ombudsman Service (“FOS”), and as such UK investors may not be able to seek redress from the FOS for a complaint related to a Fund, its operator and/or its depositary; and (iii) compensation for any claims for losses suffered as a result of the operator and/or the depositary of a Fund being unable to meet its/their liabilities to UK investors, are unlikely to be covered under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Each Fund is based overseas and is not subject to UK sustainable investment labelling and disclosure requirements.